2022 was a season of predictability AND unpredictability in the American League East. The Evil Empire led by ‘Darth’ Judge reigned atop the division for much of the season as most expected. Toronto made the playoffs and played fun baseball that only promoted their youth further. Tampa were those same ol’ pesky Rays that just wouldn’t go away finishing 10 games above .500.
The unpredicted? Those Baltimore Orioles. Playing the role of shy girl turned prom queen that everyone fell in love with, their young core started exceeding their progression and skyrocketed in the 2nd half of 2022, making baseball headlines making a great late season playoff push. And then there’s Boston. Who quite uncharacteristically was the only team that finished under .500 in 2022, seems to be the one team that every division has at any given point that hits a strange transitional period.
So how will 2023 unfold for each club? Let’s take a look.
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore has been on a slow and steady building project since appointing Brandon Hyde as their manager in 2019. Loading up on top young prospects over recent years and not forcing their growth, doing it the right way, and 2022 seemed like the expected date when the Rutschmans and Mountcastles were ready to lead the franchise.
And boy did they show the whole league in 2022 that the same ol’ pushover O’s were long gone.
4th place can be glanced at as a bad season, but winning 31 more games than they did in 2021, is unprecedented historically in any sport to see such instant growth. Doing it the homegrown way as well and not flashing the cash at free agents in this day & age has been so refreshing to see happen and makes them a very likeable bunch.
2023 however will be the first major test for the “Rutschman Era” O’s. As the goal of a playoff berth for the city of Baltimore isn’t followed with a roll of the eyes at the statement. It’s absolute reality now. There hasn’t been hype and buzz in Camden like this since Cal was at short. The kids aren’t kids anymore, the expectations are there now, and it is arguably the most important season for the club in the century.
Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle both have 100 RBI potential in their bats this year. Santander had a sneaky 33 bombs in 2022 too and the Venezuelan can certainly repeat the effort.
Cedric Mullins at the top of that order was one of the less talked about catalysts in the game today. plenty of pop, plenty of wheels, great fielder, draws a fair share of walks. heading into his “prime” with Santander Mountcastle and Rutschman hitting behind him, he’s poised for a career season.
Baltimore’s pitching staff was not only the most improved in 2022, but it might’ve had the best bullpen in baseball. Dillon Tate and Felix Bautista leading the pen both posting WHIPs under 1.00 and logging 65+ innings.
While it’s a team that may lack a “superstar”, with only one player posting an OPS above .800 in 2022 (Rutschman, .806). While the pitching staff may lack a big name, actually going thru nearly the entire 2022 season without their best arm in John Means. This Orioles squad defines “team effort”
Everything’s lined up for Baltimore to hit new heights in 2023. With the only things in their way being a juggernaut Yankee lineup and a Toronto club with all the potential in the world. In all reality though, it’s all up to the O’s
2023 Projected Finish: 3rd Place
Boston Red Sox
The last couple years in Boston have been quite eventful since making Chaim Bloom the new GM of the club in 2020. Making more noise off the field than on it. From the Mookie Betts episode, to trading catcher Christian Vazquez at the 2022 trade deadline, to the latest drama with letting Xander Bogaerts go and still not progressing in contract talks with star third baseman Rafael Devers. Chaim Bloom hasn’t been the most popular man in Boston amongst the fanbase for not delivering what the fans have been clamoring for.
Can his alternate ways of team building however, lead to success and satisfaction for Boston and the fans in 2023?
Showing he was taking Boston in a different direction from the start this offseason, he would look to international waters rather than the MLB free agent market, Signing 29-year-old outfielder Masataka Yoshida from the Osaka Buffaloes on a 90-million-dollar deal over 5 years.
It is usually a risk when spending the big bucks on international players that have no MLB experience. Yoshida’s numbers in the NPB were fantastic, however. A career .326 hitter with a very impressive .956 OPS. Proving despite his 5’8 175-pound frame, can produce some sneaky good pop and production and will most likely be in the leadoff or #2 spot in the lineup all 2023.
The spotlight will of course be on Devers. Not only for his contract situation, but without the luxury and comfort of JD Martinez hitting either in front or behind him, Raffy will be leaned on for more percentage of RBI production. A 38-year-old Justin Turner will most likely be filling the JD DH role, but does the veteran have one more classic JT season in him?
The time may be right for top Sox prospect Triston Casas for a move to The Show. With Bobby Dalbec not necessarily shutting the door on anyone else for the first base spot, Casas makes further sense for Cora and Co. to give him a shot at the majors from the start in 2023.
Where and how Cora ends up using Trevor Story this year will be interesting and important. He has the speed to hit leadoff, the pop to hit middle of the order, and even add depth at the bottom. With sneaky decent hitters in Verdugo, Kike and Refsnyder, the lineup isn’t the biggest thing to worry about in Boston, plenty of depth and OBP friendly hitters may allow Story to hit deeper in the lineup.
It’s been no secret that the main area of concern has been the pitching staff in Fenway. From the handful of AAA pitchers that have been rotated in and out, blown saves and close games turned blowouts due to subpar bullpen performances. Turning to the free agent market to improve the pen, Boston signed two more veterans in 36-year-old and 38-year-old Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen to calm nerves in the 8th and 9th innings.
Losing Nathan Eovaldi to free agency is a big loss to the rotation. Putting even more hope that lefty Chris Sale can rediscover his old form striking out double digits per 9 and staying healthy doing it. Nick Pivetta struggled early last year keeping the ball down, Whitlock has tremendous stuff, though is still adapting from reliever to starter, and Tanner Houck’s breaking ball is wonderful, but he’s had problems finding the plate at times. Therefore, a whole lot will be on the rotation to make a vast improvement.
It’s a club in an unusual situation. A front office with drastically different ideals than its predecessors. A big market and fanbase like Boston is new to owners opting for alternative ways of team building and “bang for your buck” moves. In the midst of the Devers contract episode and losing multiple beloved veterans of the club in a short amount of time, a successful winning season for the Sox in 2023 would be absolutely vital towards the way they want to go, but will it be?
2023 Projected Finish: 5th Place
New York Yankees
By mid-May last season, the Yankees had the AL East all but settled. Winning 64 games by the All-Star break and 99 for the year. But in the Bronx, AL East titles are yawned at. A historic year from Aaron Judge had many Yankee fans and neutral fans alike thinking it was fate that a World Series title was on the horizon for the Pinstripes. But alas, it was not the case.
Per usual however, the Yanks reload, not rebuild. Putting the Judge free agent supermarket sweep to bed, locking him up on a fat 9-year, 360-million-dollar deal and adding workhorse innings eater Carlos Rodon with a nice 6-year, 162-million-dollar deal of his own. Cashman spent his money early, perhaps easing the minds of the fanbase after an ugly sweep at the hands of Houston.
What’s the mindset heading into 2023 though?
The obvious goals aside, it can be easy for a team that bullied a division the previous year to go into the next in cruise control. It’s a team full of veterans however that SHOULD have a chip on their shoulder after that postseason bow out, and those same veterans still have plenty left in the tank at a high level.
Judge will be in the MVP race, Stanton’s light tower power right behind him. Rizzo’s clutch ABs in that core, an always improving Gleyber Torres, Donaldson’s moonshots. There’s enough power in the lineup for its own Home Run Derby.
It will be intriguing to see who hits leadoff in this lineup and provides runs to be batted in. With Benintendi off to the southside of Chicago, his skillset will have to be replaced. New York native Harrison Bader will be the top candidate for the role with his lights out wheels when he plays. It’s certainly a lineup in a unique situation where it can get away with a power hitter in the top two spots and have already proved they can win by doing so. Making up for their lack of speed at times with good plate discipline and steady pop.
Gerritt Cole and Carlos Rodon alone should have the Yankees near the top of the leaderboard in team strikeouts. Nestor Cortes was a borderline Cy Young candidate at times in 2022, and for most of 2022 had one of the best bullpens in the league. The Bronx should be home to one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball.
So the magic word for the Yankees heading into 2023? Complacency. Moreso not being so. They will be their only enemies and if they stay healthy, a 100-win season is quite realistic
2023 Projected Finish: 1st Place
Tampa Bay Rays
2022 was a tale of two halves for the Tampa Bay Rays. Peaking highs, sinking lows and a quick playoff elimination at the hands of Cleveland defined Tampa’s season. Finishing 10 games above .500 at the All-Star break as well as by the end of the season, it was a successful regular season and one of those typical “thorn in everyone’s side” type of Rays squad. A nice 51-30 record at the Trop too.
The lows would come at the most inopportune times for Tampa. Including the Wild Card series in which they were swept, they closed out the season going 8-20, losing the last 7 games and being outscored 88-115 in that span.
Can the Rays put the ugly 2022 ending into a blossoming 2023?
Having built this team slowly but surely, their younger talent has made significant pushes and with natural player progression, should feature one of the better-balanced teams in baseball. Might they just be in the wrong division?
The young 1-2 combo of Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen will each take their sub-3 ERAs into 2023 leading the rotation. A much-anticipated return of Tyler Glasnow can take an already solid rotation into another level, and many eyes will be on his performances once he returns.
A first glance at the lineup and their individual OPS, you’d think this team was in the cellar. But as Tampa have done time and time again, they’ve won despite the flashy numbers. The amount of talent under 30 years old they have {Franco, Paredes, Arozarena, Mejia, Lowe, Margot, Ramirez} and that most of them have played together a good amount of time now, could prove to be a perfect storm heading into this season. That rare unique chemistry that some teams are able to acquire could possibly be brewing in Tampa.
Again, will this be a case of right team, wrong division? A proven team with a little fire in them after the previous seasons ending. I would be the one of thousands of sportswriters that would be proven wrong by a Rays squad. The competition in the AL East this season, however, will be an awful lot for this young club.
2023 Projected Finish: 4th Place
Toronto Blue Jays
Much like Tampa’s ending to 2022, the Jays suffered a crumbling postseason series sweep vs Seattle after what was a successful 92-win season. This team however had a lot more spotlights and expectations on them than Tampa. A 200+ million payroll and arguably the best young core in all of baseball, fans and analysts alike had Toronto as a serious contender.
Perhaps simply a year away.
With the young core having a heartbreaker of a playoff bow out under their belt, we could be seeing a scary good Toronto in 2023. Vladdy Jr. will be flirting with the Triple Crown all summer. Bo Bichette’s versatility at the top of the lineup will see him as one of the league’s premier stat category fillers. 24 year old Alejandro Kirk is one of the more overlooked young players in the league, and will take his All-Star/Silver Slugger 2022 season into 2023 running.
The new ace for the Toronto Blue Jays and 2019 first round draft pick, 24-year-old Alek Manoah, will also look to one up his All-Star performance after his filthy 16-win, 2.24 ERA season this year. While it may be difficult to repeat such a low ERA, it’s safe to say he will be very stingy this year.
Perhaps there’s more on the shoulders of the veterans of the club to produce in order to compliment the youth’s surging progression. With Lourdes Gurriel’s big bat off to Arizona, the Springers and Chapmans will be looked onto for more slug. It is also Matt Chapman’s contract year. and the defensive master at third will be looking to do a little extra with the bat.
They’re good, they’re young, they’re deep, they’re hungry, and 2023 could be very awarding for Toronto. The bullish Yankees and up and coming Orioles will be vital matchups this season, and if the Jays manage a winning record against both clubs this year, an AL East title is absolutely within reach
2023 Projected Finish: 2nd Place (Wild Card)
